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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-04-14T11:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-04-14T11:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30073/-1
CME Note: Faint partial halo to the E/NE, seen in all coronagraphs. The source is an eruption from AR 3636 (located at S21E40 at this time), observed best in SDO AIA 171/193/304 starting around 2024-04-14T10:09Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-04-17T08:55Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-04-17T09:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:
Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-04-14T15:53
Radial velocity (km/s): 680
Longitude (deg): 25E
Latitude (deg): 4N
Half-angular width (deg): 38

Notes: 
Space weather advisor: CL
Lead Time: 13.42 hour(s)
Difference: -0.08 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-04-16T19:30Z
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If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

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